
一 | Exactly 75 years ago Jawaharlal Nehru, one of the principal leaders of India’s independence movement in the 1930s and 1940s, was sworn in as prime minister of the Dominion of India and raised the national flag at the Red Fort in Delhi. Having brought an end to the colonial rule of the British Empire, the Indian leadership embraced the concept of "non-alignment" and "neutrality" and diversified its ties, seeking new partnerships. At the time, the Soviet Union emerged as a natural ally for the independent Indian state.,Nehru was attracted to Marxism and promoted the idea of evolutionary and inclusive socialism. Back in 1927, the would-be Indian prime minister visited the USSR for the first time together with his wife Kamala, younger sister Krishna, and his father Motilal Nehru, a leader of the Indian National Congress.,The trip was connected with the 10th Anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution, which was seen by Nehru and other Indian nationalists in "a very positive light," according to Dr. Anuradha Chenoy, professor of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.,The Soviet press extensively covered the Nehrus' visit to Moscow, hailing Motilal and Jawaharlal as prominent leaders of India’s freedom movement. Jawaharlal Nehru was received in the Kremlin by Mikhail Kalinin, chairman of the Central Executive Committee of the USSR. Having wrapped up his journey, the Indian politician wrote a booklet titled "Soviet Russia, some random sketches and impressions" (1928).,"Jawaharlal Nehru was influenced by Marxist and socialist thought to some extent, as he saw the need for state intervention for alleviating poverty, developing infrastructure and for development," says Dr. Chenoy. "He thus advocated and made policies to develop state- or public sector industries and also created a Planning Commission. Independent India's Second Plan was especially modeled around the Soviet planning system.",CC BY 2.0 / Public.Resource.Org / Photo 656 Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru at the mike. 20.7.47 Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru at the mike. 20.7.47 CC BY 2.0 / Public.Resource.Org / Photo 656,USSR Helped India Lay the Groundwork for Industrialization,On January 26, 1950, India became a republic within the Commonwealth of Nations with Jawaharlal Nehru serving as the Republic of India's prime minister until May 27, 1964. During this period, the USSR and India started to deepen their ties, according to Dr. Chenoy.,"Soviet support was crucial for an underdeveloped and newly liberated country like India," the academic explains. "Since India wanted to develop as a 'mixed economy,' that is to have both a state and private sector, Western countries refused them any aid and assistance that India needed. So India turned to the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union assisted India in the creation of new steel plants and several infrastructure industries. They assisted in developing Indian science and technology institutions which laid the base for Indian development in later years.",Dr. Chenoy elaborates that in the 1950s, the USSR helped India lay the groundwork for the country's early industrialization, with the Asian giant then starting to receive Russian defense equipment and military hardware.,CC0 / / Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1917-1984) at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C. 1n 1966 Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1917-1984) at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C. 1n 1966CC0 / /,Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation,The Indian war with Pakistan in 1971 became a pivotal moment for Indo-Soviet relations, according to the Indian academic. The conflict erupted over the Bangladesh liberation movement in East Pakistan, which was accompanied by killings of the Bengalis – both Muslims and Hindus – by West Pakistani forces led by General Agha Muhammad Yahya Khan in March 1971.,As a result of the violence and instability caused by the onslaught in East Pakistan, an estimated 10 million Bengalis fled to India by May 1971, prompting Delhi to intervene. Judging from documents released in December 2002 by the National Security Archive (NSA), a US non-profit archival institution, US President Richard Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger did nothing to curtail the West Pakistani repressions against Bengalis and backed General Yahya.,After India stepped in to shield the Bengalis, "not only did the United States publicly pronounce India as the aggressor in the war, but the US sent the nuclear aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, to the Bay of Bengal, and authorized the transfer of US military supplies to Pakistan, despite the apparent illegality of doing so," according to the non-profit.,Moscow's help came in handy at the time: in August 1971, India and the USSR concluded the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation that specified mutual strategic cooperation between the countries. The treaty sent a powerful signal to the US and its allies. Eventually, the conflict ended on December 16, 1971 with the military forces of West Pakistan that were in Bangladesh surrendering.,"The Indian war with Pakistan on the issue of the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 was a very special moment of Soviet support since the US wanted to help its ally Pakistan," says Dr. Chenoy. "After this, the Treaty of Friendship signed between India and the USSR was very holistic and provided India with much technological and defense support. Since then the friendship has increased.",© Photo : Indian PM OfficeModi Putin MeetModi Putin Meet© Photo : Indian PM Office,India's Strategic Autonomy,The historic Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation was renewed for another 20 years on August 8, 1991. After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow and New Delhi replaced the accords with the 20-year Treaty of Indo-Russian Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993.,Although the dissolution of the USSR resulted in a temporary chill in Russo-Indian economic and trade relations, they were soon reshuffled and are continuing to develop regardless of sanctions imposed by the West, according to Dr. Chenoy.,Since the declaration of independence back in 1947, India has managed to achieve significant strategic autonomy. The country has been maintaining ties with various global powers in accordance with its own strategic plans.,Thus, in June 2022, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made it clear at the GlobeSec 2022 Bratislava Forum that India would not copycat the West's anti-Russia policies in the wake of Moscow's special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. He stressed that “the world cannot be that Euro-centric as it used to be in the past,” adding that India, which is one-fifth of the world’s population and the fifth-largest economy will be guided by its national interests in the first place.。

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三 | 《韩民族新闻》报道称,全球通货膨胀导致需求萎缩,半导体价格下降,再加上美国增加了半导体设备或软件等对中国出口限制,韩国半导体产业的不确定性正在增大。甚至有人预测,第四季度半导体价格有可能崩溃。在这种情况下,美国对中国的半导体相关出口限制对韩国企业来说更是危机因素。

四 | 某韩国半导体企业相关人士表示,“在产品市场价格普遍下降的基础上,美国的半导体政策还有待观望,韩国企业认为调整投资或雇佣的必要性增大,但是目前无法制定出明确的变革路线与计划。

五 | ”韩国产业研究院研究委员金良彭认为,“随着半导体供应过剩、全球需求减少及库存增加,价格下降、中国技术快速追赶、美中技术竞争加剧等风险同时发生,韩国半导体产业的不确定性正在加重。”面临三大问题一项行业调查显示,大部分半导体专家认为,韩国半导体产业处于危机状态。

六 | 韩国商工会议所最近以30名半导体专家为对象实施的“韩国半导体产业专家调查”显示,认为“危机初显”的专家占56.7%,认为“危机之中”的为20.0%,60%以上的专家预测危机“至少持续至后年”。

七 | 韩国西江大学电子工学教授范镇旭表示,“如果说过去半导体产业的动荡主要源于暂时性的外部环境恶化和半导体周期,那么此次局面则是不知何时结束的强国间的供应链竞争,以及中国的技术追击,业界的危机感和不安感比任何时候都强。”面对韩国近期越发明显的“芯焦虑”,黑龙江社会科学院东北亚研究所研究员、东北亚战略研究院首席专家笪志刚在接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,韩国半导体产业的主要出口国是中国,受限于美国对芯片产业的政策钳制,韩国对华出口量会受到严重影响,韩国国内的产能暂时缺乏承接市场,这使得韩国国内焦虑不已。其实韩国应该正视一个事实,即随着中国经济和科技的发展,半导体产业链不断完善,芯片自主研发能力的加强,中国半导体的市场占有份额未来还会不断扩大。辽宁社会科学院朝鲜韩国研究中心首席研究员吕超告诉《环球时报》记者,韩国的芯片多服务于高尖端产品,中国的芯片则集中于中低端产品,因此,中国长期以来是韩国的主要芯片进口国,韩国的贸易多年来也是顺差。不过,近年来,中国在芯片投入了大量的人力物力,芯片发展迅速,在高尖端芯片领域进步飞速,市场竞争力也不断提升。吕超认为,韩国当下的“芯焦虑”主要是因为韩国半导体供应链不完整、国内市场容量小以及过于依赖海外订单三大问题。“韩国的芯片产品在对外贸易中占比非常大,当国际半导体市场出现供需波动,韩国首当其冲。尤其是半导体供应链,一旦发生问题,韩国的芯片产业受到的冲击非常大。”“韩国半导体原材料对中国依赖比例越来越高”,韩国纽西斯通讯社12日报道称,在美国越来越明显地将中国排除出国际半导体供应链之际,韩国半导体关键原材料对中国的依赖正在增加。努力平衡中美因素韩国关税厅(海关)12日发布的统计数字显示,今年1-7月用于半导体制造的氟化氢进口额为6516.8万美元,其中78.1%从中国进口。

八 | 2019年中国产氟化氢占韩国总进口比例为50%,但去年猛增至70.1%。

九 | 近年,韩国与日本因为强制劳工判决问题发生贸易争端后,韩国一直试图提高氟化氢本土化生产比例,因此有观点认为,半导体关键原材对华依赖度过高“可能也会产生大问题”。

十 | 作为半导体生产过程中不可或缺的氖气,韩国从中国进口也在猛增。今年韩国氖气总进口额达4.8亿美元,中国产品占比45.0%。今年韩国从中国进口氖气的金额比去年猛增1594.7%,特别是每公斤氖气的价格已经从去年的每公斤216美元涨到今年的2553美元,涨幅超过十倍。7月份氖气的平均价格突破了每公斤 3221 美元的历史新高。不仅如此,韩国对外经济政策研究院发布的数据显示,韩国半导体生产的关键原料镓和钨的96%和84%要从中国进口。有分析认为,韩国对华半导体关键原材料的进口短期内难以大幅减少。“美国旨在吸引全球投资北美产能的《半导体支援法》效果有限,韩国半导体会是否会被泼冷水?”韩国《先驱经济》12日的报道称,最近美国高盛首席经济学家领衔的研究团队分析认为,美国《半导体支援法》不足以解决过去几年的半导体供应链问题。

十一 | 韩国主要半导体企业正期待从美国《半导体支援法》受惠而加大对美投资。然而,如果考虑美国当地半导体工厂的投资成本和运行成本,有业内人士表示,从半导体制造公司的角度来看,很难从《半导体支援法》立即获得较大收益。因此,韩国不能将发展半导体产业的未来寄托在美国身上。面对美国极力拉拢韩国加入的“芯片四方联盟”,韩国商工会议所近期的一项调查显示,36.6%的受访者认为其对韩国影响积极,46.7%的受访者则持负面看法。

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