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基金周策略：坚定看好汽车板块下半年的投资机会_bp_预期_我的网站
一 | "I think the end of the Johnson administration is a positive thing, despite the infighting," says Rodney Atkinson, an academic and political and economic commentator. "The candidates may be promising irresponsible tax cuts and not understanding how the economy works but the public debate is more mature and in the end the right policies could emerge.",One of the candidates, Sajid Javid, former health secretary, vowed to axe the former chancellor’s plans to raise the corporation tax from 19% to 25% in April 2023, and decrease the rate to 15%. His competitor Jeremy Hunt pledged the lowest rate of business taxes in the Western world, while Liz Truss, yet another contender, is also willing to adhere to "low-tax principles." In contrast, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who is seeking the prime ministership along with his party fellows, has placed emphasis on "fiscal prudence" rather than tax cuts, while criticizing other candidates for offering "comforting fairytales.","There are two economic issues here," explains Gayle Allard, a professor of economics at IE University in Spain. "One is the debt, which is clearly a problem for the UK and which would be aggravated by tax cuts. The other is the dilemma between trying to restart growth (which requires a tax cut) and to control very high inflation (which requires a tax increase). And then there is a political objective: voters like tax cuts. Which will win out? I would hope for a short-term tax increase, with the government keeping its promise to reduce it later. I think that makes the most sense.",According to Atkinson, those who are promoting tax cuts without at least equal cuts in state spending are "totally irresponsible.",While the bulk of the candidates are promising anything between 20 and 40 billion in tax cuts, what everyone's really pledging is "to reverse the increase, which was implemented as of April 1," according to Marc Ostwald, chief economist at ADM Investor Services International.,"Let's take, for instance, the corporation tax cut which is being proposed," Ostwald says. "It's not actually a tax cut, because really all it is, is basically saying 'we're not going to implement the increase from 19% to 25% in corporation tax that is planned for next year.' Only Jeremy Hunt, I think, amongst them all is basically pledging to actually cut it down to 15%.",UK's Tory Government Faces Social Collapse, Having No-One But Itself to Blame21 June, 05:48 GMT,However, there are plenty of problems that cannot be fixed by the much-discussed tax cuts, Ostwald underscores: "The UK's infrastructure is atrocious; the level of poverty in the country is bad; the cost of living crisis [is] somewhat worse in the UK than across much of the rest of the developed world.",British unions kicked off a series of industrial actions starting from June 2022, demanding pay raises in line with skyrocketing inflation and protesting over the cost of living crisis. Tens of thousands of railway workers walked off the job in Britain on June 21. Criminal law barristers took to the streets on June 27. Teachers' unions and the civil service have been balloted on possible industrial action, while doctors and nurses are threatening to follow suit. Meanwhile, British rail and transport workers have voted in favor of a new strike in July.,There are also a whole array of problems related to Brexit, including red tape and other "non-tariff barriers" which translated into additional costs for businesses and are eating away at their margins, according to the economist. He laments the fact that neither the Tory nor Labour Party has so far proposed any solutions to these problems.,'We Want to Save Lives': How Tory Cabinets Pushed NHS to the Wall, Disregarded Nation's Health28 June, 17:52 GMT,UK's Political Instability Making Crisis Worse,The unfolding socio-economic instability has been exacerbated by Johnson's resignation and the internal infighting among British Tories is to some extent "damaging the economy by creating unnecessary uncertainty," according to Kevin Dowd, professor of finance and economics at Durham University.,"[A] lot will depend on who wins the leadership," Dowd says. "There are one, maybe two, decent candidates in there but for the most part they are a sorry lot, and I am not optimistic that a good prime minister will emerge… Most if not all of these people do not have a strong grasp of what the country needs, so I expect a lot more policy drift and a bad outcome for the Tories in the next general election.",A big number of contenders for BoJo's position "shows actually that Johnson has left a bit of a vacuum, because he was to some extent actually quite popular, despite all his lies, despite all his gaffes, despite his incompetent policies, despite all the back to and froing," according to Ostwald.,However, none of the 11 contenders "stands out as a genuine leader, as a prime minister, as a leader of a country," the economist emphasizes.,Boris Johnson Pledges Not to Back Any Tory Bidder as 'Dirty' Leadership Race Gains SteamYesterday, 14:30 GMT,'It's Johnson's Fault',It is Johnson who bears "90 percent" of responsibility for the current crisis, the economic observers argue.,"[Johnson] had let state finances get out of control before the COVID Lockdown spending," Atkinson says. "He has been the most irresponsible prime minister since Edward Heath who between 1970 and 1974 led a spending and monetary expansion boom. It resulted in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) controlling the UK economy in 1975. Johnson’s first instinct was more Government and more spending and more borrowing. We will be paying for his failure for decades.",Johnson "must bear a lot of the blame," Kevin Dowd agrees. While having a huge parliamentary majority and the opportunity to make radical reforms free of the shackles of the EU, Johnson "blew it," according to the professor.,"What are the chances of the UK going into recession? I think it's pretty much baked in the cake," echoes Ostwald. "There isn't a lot of momentum there. The trade position is getting worse. The cost of living crisis is quite clearly there and the investment into the UK is getting weaker and I would add that this whole methodology of applying sanctions by seizing assets is particularly bad for the UK. The UK has been attracting foreign capital from Russia, from the Middle East, from Asia, from pretty much anywhere that one can think of for a very, very long time.",However, it's not only the outgoing prime minister who is responsible for the current crisis in the UK, the economist admits: "These have been accumulating for years. People have been going to the food banks in the UK since the numbers started rising in the early 2010s after the global financial crisis and the numbers got a lot worse than in the meantime, particularly due to the cost of living crisis," Ostwald concluded.。
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三 | 中信一级行业分类中，房地产上涨7.15%，或因中央提供资金支持，部分地方出台保交楼政策，市场对于政策的预期上升；煤炭、石油石化板块或在北溪一号线停气的催化下分别上涨6.66%和4.74%。
四 | ；有色金属板块或受益于部分商品价格回弹，上涨6.49%；交通运输板块上涨4.15%，或因市场预计未来防疫政策有所放松；各地疫情发酵影响白酒中秋国庆旺季销售预期，食品饮料板块上周下跌1.46%；农林板块下跌3.84%，或因国家发改委会同有关部门投放中央冻猪肉储备，生猪价格小幅下跌。利率债方面，上周各期限收益率多数上行。具体来看，国债1年期上行4.04bp，3年期下行0.51bp，5年期上行1.60bp，7年期上行1.38bp，10年期上行1.24bp；国开债1年期上行0.49bp，3年期下行1.34bp，5年期上行0.88bp，7年期下行2.43bp，10年期上行0.56bp。
五 | 信用债方面，上周各期限收益率多数下行。目前，半年、1年、3年、5年AAA中短期票据的收益率分别为1.86%、2.07%、2.58%、2.94%，AAA企业债收益率分别为1.86%、2.03%、2.57%、2.89%，AAA城投债收益率分别为1.86%、2.05%、2.58%、2.94%。山西证券：建议逐步关注和布局弹性大、盈利能力强和具有较优成长性及估值修复空间的行业山西证券坚持认为，7月开始，市场进入中期调整阶段，8月初的企稳更多是中报预期带来的短暂修复，而9月初以来的反弹主要来自地产政策预期的改善。A股当前阶段并不具备估值持续抬升的基础，主要有以下三方面原因：一是政治因素，虽然中美刚签署完审计监管合作协议，但中美脱钩乃至中美冲突进一步升级仍具有高度不确定性；二是地产政策虽然再度出现放松预期，但全球衰退预期加剧，国内经济下行压力仍将难以改善；三是欧元区大幅加息75个基点意味着，为对抗通胀，全球流动性进一步收紧，LPR下调利率后国内流动性的释放对冲美元及欧元流动性的持续收紧将更加困难。山西证券倾向于认为，受流动性和企业盈利边际持续下行的影响，A股目前大概率难以启动新一轮趋势性行情。
六 | 但综合来看，随着调整时间的延续以及幅度的加大，A股整体估值已经进入低估区间，以1年期维度看，市场已经有收获趋势性行情的基础，建议逐步关注和布局弹性大、盈利能力强和具有较优成长性及估值修复空间的行业。中信证券：坚定看好汽车板块下半年的投资机会中信证券指出，2022年8月汽车销量实现242万辆，环比-1.5%，同比+32.1%，同比大幅增长，符合预期。其中乘用车销量实现212.5万辆，环比-2.3%，同比+36.5%。商用车销量实现25.8万辆，环比+5%，同比+4%，从去年4月以来首次同比正增长。新能源汽车实现销量66.6万辆，同比+104.2%。我们预计2022年下半年将是汽车消费明确的高β窗口，行业盈利能力也望明显环比改善，坚定看好汽车板块下半年的投资机会。农银汇理基金经理邢军亮：新能源板块未来仍是具有优势的市场投资方向“短期市场大概率仍将维持震荡，尽管风格上有所均衡，但行业、风格轮动较快，投资操作难度较高，建议立足长期灵活布局。”农银新能源混合基金经理邢军亮说，从半年报及三季报业绩展望角度看，以新能源板块为代表的科技成长仍是业绩确定性强、景气优势延续的方向，凭借板块过硬的基本面支撑，未来仍是具有优势的市场投资方向。民生加银基金：看好消费电子、火电和军工板块的表现民生加银基金表示，对于前期涨幅过大的高估值板块不宜太过乐观，更多关注估值合理、景气度出现边际改善的行业，看好消费电子、火电和军工板块的表现。（本文仅供参考，不构成投资建议，据此操作风险自担）返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：
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