一 | 北京时间周三（8月26日）晚上20:30，本周最受关注的美国宏观经济数据之一——7月个人消费支出（PCE）报告——将出炉。 With a Tory leadership contest in full swing, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak has pledged to slash the basic rate of income tax by 20% by 2029 if he becomes UK prime minister, the largest such reduction in 30 years.,“What I’m putting to people today is a vision to deliver the biggest income tax cut since Margaret Thatcher’s government. It is a radical vision but also a realistic one, and there are some core principles that I’m simply not prepared to compromise on, whatever the prize,” Sunak emphasized.,Thatcher was Prime Minister of the UK from 1979 to 1990.,The ex-Chancellor also promised that if he prevails in the Tory leadership race, he will “never get taxes down in a way that just puts inflation up.” The 42-year-old added that he will “never make promises” he “can’t pay for” and he will “always be honest about the challenges” Britain faces.,Rishi Sunak Seeks to Crack Down on Foreign Lawbreakers, Increase Number of Deportations29 July, 09:11 GMT,“Because winning this leadership contest without levelling with people about what lies ahead would not only be dishonest – it would be an act of self-sabotage that condemns us to defeat at the next general election,” Sunak pointed out.,The Daily Mail cited an unnamed source from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s Tory leadership campaign as accusing Sunak of offering ‘jam tomorrow’.,“It’s welcome that Rishi has performed another U-turn on cutting tax, it’s only a shame he didn’t do this as chancellor when he repeatedly raised taxes. The public and Conservative Party members can see through these flip-flops,” the source argued.,This was echoed by Simon Clarke, chief secretary to the Treasury, who underscored that they “cannot afford to wait to help families, they need support now.” He made it clear that “Liz will cut taxes in seven weeks, not seven years.”,Sunak and Truss repeatedly locked horns over the tax issue during live TV debates last month, with the foreign secretary, in particular, accusing the former Chancellor of raising taxes “to the highest level in 70 years,” which is “not going to drive economic growth.”,Sunak claimed that the UK’s massive tax burden was the result of the unprecedented levels of government spending aimed at keeping the national economy afloat amid the coronavirus pandemic. Truss said that no other country was raising taxes, and accused Sunak of having no clear-cut plan for economic growth.,Meanwhile, voting ballots will start landing on doorsteps of Tory members starting Monday, with many of them expected to return the papers long before the September 2 deadline.,Sunak Unveils 10-Point Border Security Plan as Truss May Turn to Foreign Policy in Fight for PM Seat24 July, 06:12 GMT,Sunak and Truss are now two remaining candidates in the race to replace Boris Johnson as Conservative Party leader and prime minister. Both secured their places in the final two in July, when Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt was knocked out in the fifth round of voting by Conservative MPs.,The two contenders are set to spend the next few weeks campaigning for the votes of about 180,000 Conservative Party members around the country, who will vote by postal or online ballot. The winner of the party leadership race, who will be announced on September 5th, is due to automatically become UK prime minister.。 作为美联储“最青睐的通胀指标”，最新的PCE数据将在该央行9月政策会议之前为研判美国经济状况提供关键参考，并成为重新定价美国利率预期的重要催化剂。 市场预计美国7月PCE物价指数将较6月有所回升，但经济学家表示，更广泛的趋势将指向通胀压力趋于缓和。 根据FactSet的一致预期，经济学家预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.07%，此前6月环比下降了0.11%；7月PCE同比涨幅预计由6月的3.7%小幅回落至3.6%。 剔除波动较大的食品、能源价格的核心PCE物价指数，预计环比上涨0.18%，略高于6月的上涨0.13%；同比上涨3.20%，而6月为上涨3.3%。 值得注意的是，美国经济分析局将于9月发布对PCE报告的计算方法变更，以更准确地捕捉计算机硬件、股票投资组合管理和法律服务领域的价格动态。这意味着，7月PCE数据后续或将面临修正。 此前6月美国PCE数据曾出现2020年以来首次环比负增长，同比升幅也从前月的4.1%收窄至3.7%。通胀降温主要源于美伊达成临时停火协议后油价的走低。
二 | ClearBridge 投资高级投资策略分析师Josh Jamner表示：“通胀预期整体相当稳定。过去几个月出现的通胀抬升预计只是短期现象。”
为何7月核心PCE预计仍将处于高位？ 法国外贸银行（Natixis）美国首席经济学家Christopher Hodge表示，虽然目前 “已不再有证据表明关税正在影响通胀”，但仍有几个细分品类继续给核心通胀带来压力。主要来看，与人工智能与数据中心大规模建设相关的计算机软硬件价格上行压力仍在持续显现。 他预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.14%，同比涨幅维持在3.70%。核心PCE将环比上涨0.20%，同比涨幅同样维持在3.3%。 瑞银经济学家表示，近几个月来，AI在通胀篮子中的存在一直在缓慢爬升，但尚不足以搅乱整体通胀趋势。随着AI在各行业的采用扩大，软件和IT成本正在上升，并带动计算机硬件等核心耐用品的成本走高。 该行经济学家预计，美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.16%，同比上涨3.60%；核心PCE将环比上涨0.25%，同比上涨3.30%。 高盛高级经济学家David Mericle预计，随着金融市场施加上行压力，核心PCE将在7月上涨，因为股价走高预计将推高投资组合管理费。这可能对月度涨幅贡献0.11个百分点。总体而言，Mericle预计，核心PCE 7月将环比上涨0.20%，同比上涨3.24%。 美联储9月料按兵不动 ClearBridge的Jamner预计，美联储9月将按兵不动。更多经济数据将在9月会议前陆续公布，如8月CPI和就业报告。
三 | “目前来看，美联储目前按兵不动的可能性比其他任何选项都更大，但距离会议仍有一段时间，局势仍存在变数。 Natixis的Hodge也倾向于认为美联储9月将维持利率不变，但与此同时，他认为，鉴于近期的经济数据，市场对加息的预期是合理的。 “如果PCE数据令人意外（即通胀超预期），且并非因为某种统计异常，那么9月加息的可能性就会提升。
四 | 但我并不认为会出现这种情况，预计数据整体将相当温和。”他表示。
五 | 据CME“美联储观察”，目前美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，加息25个基点的概率为39.6%。 虽然大多数市场参与者预计美联储9月将按兵不动，但这一前景可能随着更多通胀和就业数据的出炉而发生改变。 总体来看，市场参与者仍在等待更多信号，以判断美国经济基本面，以及美联储今年是否会选择加息。
六 | 本周，市场还将密切关注美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的演讲，以寻找其通胀立场线索。（文章来源：财联社）。
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