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李开复谈AI公司ToB“项目制”顽疾：“赚钱容易，盈利很难”_我的网站

一 |     播放          下一个          打开循环播放          00:00     /     00:00          倍速          3.0X     2.0X     1.5X     1.25X     1.0X     0.75X     0.5X          多音轨          AirPlay          0          静音播放中，点击 恢复音量          画中画          网页全屏          全屏          你可以 刷新 试试          视频信息     1.33.6          播放信息 上传日志 调试信息 [X]          视频ID     VID     -          播放流水     Flowid     -          播放内核     Kernel     -          显示器信息     Res     -          帧数     -          缓冲健康度     -          网络活动     net     -          视频分辨率     -          编码     Codec     -          mystery     mystery     -          按住画面移动小窗          21世纪经济报道记者 董静怡 上海报道          “AI六小虎”已走出截然不同的路线。    On the one-year anniversary of US forces’ hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan after a 20-year deployment, there is renewed focus on the decision-making made by the Joe Biden administration that resulted in the swift fall of the Afghan government and the eventual return to power of the Taliban* Islamist group.,With the Democratic POTUS’ approval rating hitting historic lows and eating away at his party’s November midterm prospects, it is commonly believed that his handling of the Afghan crisis at the time of the pull-out created the momentum that began to drag down Americans’ confidence in Biden’s leadership.,The United States-led military offensive "Operation Enduring Freedom" was originally launched by former US President George W. Bush in pursuit of terrorists from Al Qaeda** - including leader Osama bin Laden - for masterminding the September 11, 2001 attacks in the US.,At the time, a series of four coordinated terrorist attacks by the Islamist terrorist group Al Qaeda killed 2,996 people in the US as hijackers crashed two planes into the World Trade Center, hijacking another that failed to reach its target, crashing in Shanksville, Pa., and a third that struck the west side of the Pentagon.,© AP Photo / AMY SANCETTASmoke billows from the North and South Towers of the World Trade Center before they collapsed on September 11, 2001 in New York, NYSmoke billows from the North and South Towers of the World Trade Center before they collapsed on September 11, 2001 in New York, NY© AP Photo / AMY SANCETTA,After suspicion fell onto Al Qaeda, the United States responded by launching the War on Terror and invading Afghanistan under the pretext that the Taliban had failed to comply with Washington’s demands to expel Al Qaeda from the country and extradite the terrorist group’s leader, Osama bin Laden. American-led forces overthrew the Kabul-based Taliban government, which had been in control of large parts of the country since 1996.,Bin Laden was eventually killed nearly a decade later, in 2011, by a group of Navy SEALs who raided his compound in Pakistan. As Washington's attempt to impose Western ideas and forms of government on the country increasingly failed and the situation deteriorated for the Western-backed government in Kabul, the Donald Trump administration opened peace talks with the Taliban.,In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration signed an agreement in Doha, Qatar, between the US and the Taliban on drawing down US involvement based on a "reduction in violence." The "Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan" set out a series of commitments from the US and the Taliban regarding troop levels, counterterrorism, and intra-Afghan dialogue seeking to bring about "a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.",The deal stipulated a deadline of May 1 the next year for all US troops to leave the country.,However, in April 2021, President Joe Biden, just seven months into his presidency, unilaterally deviated from the peace deal by extending the timeframe to September 11 and ordered all troops to withdraw from the country by an end of August 2021 deadline, with his decision triggering chaos and bloodshed.,‘Failed Intel’,As the US military began their pull-out, sending home troops and equipment, the emboldened Taliban proceeded with a lightening-swift onslaught. They took over huge swathes of the country, facing little resistance and picking up weapons and vehicles paid for by the US government which Afghan government troops left behind.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,Afghan officials, including the country’s president, Ashraf Ghani, fled, as the country’s capital, Kabul, was taken over by the militants on August 15, 2021 in a matter of hours.,None of the US intelligence assessments had predicted such a swift collapse, with American officials insisting in June that Kabul could capitulate within six to 12 months after the start of the withdrawal. Amid reports of failed intel forecasts, then-Pentagon spokesman John Kirby acknowledged that security in some parts of Afghanistan was “certainly deteriorating, and that’s of concern.” Washington continued to emphasize “commitment to the people of Afghanistan” and the goal of “ensuring that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorist groups who pose a threat to the US homeland.”,Amid the developments, the Biden administration debated whether to delay the American departure from Bagram Air Base, 35 miles north of Kabul, but eventually opted to go ahead. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had told the House Armed Services Committee that “it is not necessary for the United States to stay at Bagram for what we’re going to try to do here with Afghanistan.”,Civilians Caught in Crossfire,As the Taliban regained full control, more than 120,000 people, including Afghans and foreigners, were frantically evacuated in a vast airlift operation from Kabul International airport. Thousands of Afghan citizens desperately sought to flee the country in fear of the Islamist group’s return to rule.,Exclusive- A clear video (from other angle) of men falling from C-17. They were Clinging to some parts of the plane that took off from Kabul airport today. #Talibans #Afghanistan #Afghanishtan pic.twitter.com/CMNW5ngqrK— Aśvaka - آسواکا News Agency (@AsvakaNews) August 16, 2021,Searing images from the capital’s airport showed desperate people trying to cling to the wings of planes that were taking off amid the huge airlift operation. Many Afghans who collaborated with the occupying US forces and feared retribution from the Islamist group were left behind in the hasty evacuation. Between 100 and 200 Americans remained in Afghanistan, despite wanting to get out.,© AP Photo / Wali SabawoonSmoke rises from a deadly explosion outside the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, Aug. 26, 2021. Smoke rises from a deadly explosion outside the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, Aug. 26, 2021. © AP Photo / Wali Sabawoon,Furthermore, 13 US troops were killed on August 26 in a suicide bomb attack blamed on an Afghan offshoot of Daesh***.,The explosive device detonated by a single bomber who was able to approach Kabul International Airport's Abbey Gate killed at least 170 Afghan civilians and 13 US service members. The bomber was not stopped as Afghans had begun using alternate routes to the gate due to the difficulty of getting through Taliban checkpoints.,In another deadly incident that marred the withdrawal, a botched US drone strike killed 10 civilians - seven of them children - on August 29.,WorldCIA Reportedly Warned US Military of Likely Presence of Children Near Afghan Drone Strike Target 19 September 2021, 08:56 GMT,The US claimed it had been targeting a Daesh operative with a car full of explosives linked to the terrorist group’s affiliate, planning an imminent attack on American forces during the final days of the evacuation. However, the man turned out to be a longtime Afghan aid worker, Zamarai Ahmadi, employed by Nutrition and Education International, a nongovernmental organization focused on food security.,Approximately three weeks after the strike, the military acknowledged its "tragic mistake," yet a subsequent Air Force review around the strike found "no violation of law, including the law of war.",The last US aircraft left Kabul on August 30, 2021.,AfghanistanKirby Under Fire After He 'Takes Issue With Premise' US Handed Afghanistan to 'Terrorist Group'3 August, 09:54 GMT,Joe Biden’s administration faced bipartisan criticism for the Afghan withdrawal.,On August 17, just two days after the fall of Kabul, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan promised the White House would “conduct an extensive hot wash” and “look at every aspect of this from top to bottom.” But it remains unclear when any progress will be made by the congressionally-ordered bipartisan 16-member commission on the 20-year Afghan war, US media reported.,NBC News: Biden Admin Prepping Unified Message on Anniversary of Botched Afghan Withdrawal11 July, 16:09 GMT,The White House is believed to have geared up for congressional investigations into the Afghanistan withdrawal if Republicans win the House or the Senate in November’s midterm elections, according to sources cited in US media reports.,* The Taliban is an organization under UN sanctions over terrorist activities.,**Al-Qaeda is a terrorist group banned in Russia and many other countries.,*** Daesh, also known as ISIS/IS/Islamic State, is a terrorist group banned in Russia.。         智谱AI和MiniMax相继上市，智谱创始人唐杰在内部信中表示未来两年不追求短期应用变现，将攻坚AGI；MiniMax创始人闫俊杰则表示不达到AGI将不领薪资。月之暗面同样将目标设定为“超越Anthropic等前沿公司，成为世界领先的AGI公司”。

二 |          另一边，阶跃星辰直接转向了AI硬件，发布了智能体手机；百川智能则选择在医疗垂直大模型上深耕；零一万物则一门心思扑向企业AI，走向了更细分的赛道。

三 |          在WAIC 2026上，零一万物创始人兼CEO李开复向记者算了一笔账：中国目前有11家还在执着于做大模型训练的公司，扣除2家有特殊商业理由自研的，还有9家。         “如果全部是同质化的通用大模型，我觉得是不需要的。”李开复向记者表示，“除非真的是有信心或者是背水一战，天涯何处无芳草，为什么一定要选大模型？”          大背景是AI行业正在从“宏大叙事”阶段进入商业化阶段。高盛的一份报告指出，AI行业的终极赢家，将不再是那些投入资金最多的公司，而是那些在每美元AI投资中能产生最高“有用产出”的公司。         但目前，大部分AI公司都还是亏钱的。亏损的原因并不复杂。李开复分析可能有几个原因：一是训练模型很贵，即便有收入也可能难以覆盖成本；二是ToC公司买流量，流量成本也把利润消耗掉了。         ToB被许多AI公司视为更有前景的方向。李开复也承认，从理论上说ToB的价值应该更大——普通用户不太可能每月花几千块钱去订阅一个Agent，而企业愿意为强化工作流或替代员工付费。但他同时坦承，中国ToB市场对项目制的依赖比较大。         所谓项目制，就是客户提出需求，AI公司按需定制开发，一单一议。这种模式下，要获得收入并不难，市场上对AI有好奇心和尝试意愿的企业很多，接单总能接到。但想要盈利，却不容易。         为了交付一个可用的产品，AI公司需要投入大量的人力进行定制开发、数据清洗、私有化部署，甚至提供驻场服务。这导致AI公司规模越大，亏损可能越严重，“做一单赔一单”。         行业普遍不赚钱的根源，还是在于技术价值尚未有效转化为商业价值。客户愿意为概念买单，但未必愿意为效果持续付费。这需要AI公司在产品定义、交付模式和客户选择上做出更清醒的判断。

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Published on:03:22:39