作者：龙伯顺 来源：原创 发布日期：08-20
A | 从2023年1月Netflix的2022年第四季度财报开始，它将不提供下一季度（2023年第一季度）的指引。该公司将继续为下一季度的收入、营业收入、营业利润率、净收入、每股收益和完全稀释的流通股提供指导，但不提供付费会员。“正如在以前的信中所讨论的那样，我们越来越关注收入，将其作为我们的主要顶线指标，”Netflix在其第三季度股东信中说。 Tensions between China and Taiwan boiled over last week after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ignored Beijing’s warnings and visited Taipei. Beijing reacted by launching large-scale military exercises, which disrupted global supply chains, as the foreign ministry warned that Taiwan’s reunification with China was historically inevitable.,The US does not officially recognize Taiwan’s independence, and supposedly embraces a "One China" policy, but Washington’s diplomatic relations and arms sales to the island have been condemned by Beijing for years. US lawmakers, adding fuel to the fire ignited by Pelosi, have been working on legislation that would provide Taiwan with $4.5 billion in security aid in addition to granting the island non-NATO ally status.,Four days before Pelosi’s trip, Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a phone call warned President Joe Biden that the US was "playing with fire," and now was not the time for a full-blown crisis over Taiwan.,In light of the current over-reliance on Taiwan, many companies within several sectors of the US economy would likely agree with Xi.,In a bid to reduce dependence on the island, the US government will be investing billions on projects to develop domestic semiconductor capabilities. However, former senior US diplomat Chas Freeman believes China may be better positioned in the long run to penetrate this highly-concentrated market in the race for microchip self-sufficiency.,"The United States still has the capacity and resources to out-compete China but it still has not done so," Freeman, who was President Richard Nixon’s translator during his 1972 visit to Beijing, told Sputnik. "On the contrary, 19 of the world’s 20th fastest growing semiconductor companies are now in mainland China and none are in the United States.",US Vulnerabilities Run Abroad and Deep,Last year, the US economy lost $240 billion due to the global microchip shortage, and a war over Taiwan would be even more devastating for the United States due to its dependence on one single supplier: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest chip foundry.,TSMC accounted for more than half of the $100 billion semiconductor manufacturing market in 2021, and makes more than 90% of the world’s most advanced microchips, according to the Capital Economics research group. And the company’s market share is only likely to expand. TSMC executives in a July earnings call projected 30% growth this year, which would put total annual revenue well over $70 billion.,American tech giants like Apple, Intel, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, AMD, and Broadcom, all rely on TSMC, while the US government depends on the Taiwanese supplier for some of the most critical and complex systems.,The Energy Department’s Argonne National Laboratory, a byproduct of the Manhattan project, for example, is building a national security supercomputer using TSMC because Intel was forced to delay production.,US-China Tensions Over TaiwanPelosi Meets Chair of World’s Largest Chipmaker in Taiwan Amid Increasing US-Chinese Tensions3 August, 11:41 GMT,Moreover, TSMC makes semiconductors for high-end weapons systems and a wide range of military-grade devices, a major factor in the US pressuring TSMC to move production to America’s shores, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a June report.,The Biden administration in a supply chain review last summer even conceded that the United States is too heavily dependent on TSMC for producing America’s leading-edge semiconductors - a reality that led to the recently-passed CHIPS Act, signed by Biden on Monday, which provides more than $52 billion in subsidies for domestic manufacturers.,In July, former director of cybersecurity for the White House National Security Council, Zach Nunn, described the semiconductor shortage and lack of capacity as a "direct threat to America’s economy and national security.",Although Biden failed to prevent Pelosi's visit, he is apparently well aware of America’s vulnerabilities. The president stopped short of opposing the House Speaker publicly, but behind the scenes senior White House officials were dispatched to dissuade Pelosi from going, Bloomberg reported, and to halt the new bill that would provide billions in military aid to Taiwan.,Chip Race With China,Some experts have suggested China has shown restraint in punishing Taiwan economically because it could backfire. TSMC Chairman Mark Liu, who met Pelosi during her visit, told CNN Beijing will "think twice" about invading because China’s most advanced systems rely on his firm’s semiconductors. An invasion, Liu added, would render his company "not operable.",Part of the reason TSMC has an advantage is a near monopoly on the skill set needed to develop certain advanced microchips. This has been exacerbated by a global high-tech talent shortage amid soaring demand for software skills needed to program and integrate chips into fast-growing markets such as electric vehicles and robotics, according to a 2022 Deloitte industry outlook.,The US Chips Act allocates funding to develop these types of skills while Beijing has focused on enhancing such capabilities as part of the $1.4 trillion high tech investment plan it unveiled in 2020.,China Slams US Attempt to Ban Dutch Sales of Chipmaking Equipment6 July, 14:23 GMT,Although China today accounts for only 15% of global manufacturing in semiconductors, its chip companies are rapidly growing. Meanwhile, the US share of the market has dropped from 37% to 12%.,Freeman, who chairs an international business development firm, said Beijing’s aspirations go beyond simply developing manufacturing capabilities.,"The US still leads in chip design but China is also closing that gap rapidly and is already only a year or two behind us," Freeman said.,China, which currently produces one-third of global manufacturing, Freeman added, has the talent and skills to eventually take the lead in many technology and science-related sectors.,Freeman pointed out that Chinese universities produce four times as many students as the United States in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) - and the gap is widening.,"Many examples from history refute the complacent American assumption that only private companies in liberal democracies with free speech on political matters can be inventive," Freeman said. "History proves that myth is wrong. China is proving it is wrong again today."。“进入2023年，这将变得特别重要，因为我们开发了新的收入来源，如广告和付费分享，而会员只是我们收入增长的一个组成部分。”Netflix表示，它将继续报告流媒体用户总数，以及每个季度的地区用户数字，作为其收益发布的一部分。投资者关系和企业发展副总裁Spencer Wang在该公司的第三季度财报采访录音中说：“从总体上看，你知道的，相当小的变化。”这家流媒体巨头在发布第三季度财报时宣布了其指导报告的变化，该财报大大超出了华尔街的预期。Netflix恢复了用户增长，新增240万净付费用户（超过其100万的指引）。它还预测第四季度会有450万的增加。Netflix在其股东信中说：“我们的付费净增量预测假定我们经历了通常的季节性以及强大的内容板块的影响，并被宏观经济的疲软所抵消，导致可见度低于正常水平。
B | ”Netflix下个月将在12个国家推出更便宜的、有广告支持的计划，包括11月3日在美国，其费用为6.99美元/月（比9.99美元的常规单流Netflix Basic计划低30%）。该公司说：“虽然我们对我们的新广告业务非常乐观，但我们不期望在22年第四季度有实质性的贡献，因为我们将在本季度内推出我们的Basic With Ads计划，并预期随着时间的推移逐步增加该计划的成员。我们的目标是给我们潜在的新会员提供更多的选择--而不是把会员从他们目前的计划中转换出来。
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