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美元理财收益优势减弱，外贸企业结汇升温_我的网站
A | “9月下旬起，身边不少外贸企业陆续加大结汇力度。究其原因，一是他们发现在美联储重启降息周期后，10年期美国国债收益率一度跌破4%，美元理财的收益优势开始减弱；二是在美联储降息后，人民币对美元汇率上涨突破7.15—7.30的盘整区间，大家开始预期人民币汇率或将补涨，纷纷提前行动以锁定较高的结汇价格。”陈琦告诉记者。 CIRCLEVILLE, Ohio -- As Jadarrius Rose drove his 18-wheeler through rural Ohio, a simple missing mudflap caught the highway patrol’s eye. The trip ended with a police dog’s powerful jaws clamping down on Rose even as he tried to surrender. As he stood with his hands up beside the highway on July 4, at least six law enforcement officers surrounded him at a distance, one calling forcefully to the K-9 handler: “Do not release the dog," highway patrol video shows.Nevertheless, a Belgian Malinois is seen on the video either breaking free or being set loose. At first, the animal seems confused, racing past Rose toward officers at the far end of the truck, then turning back and running for Rose, then 23.By then the trucker is on his knees, hands still high, as an officer shouts, “Get the dog off of him!”That day, Rose joined a long list of Black Americans attacked by police dogs, a history well documented by journalists, academics and filmmakers. Investigations into such cases have been launched regularly in recent years. For some, the scenes harken back to the Civil Rights Movement, when authorities often turned dogs and firehoses on peaceful Black protesters marching for equality. The Associated Press captured one such attack in a photograph from Birmingham, Alabama, taken in the spring of 1963. It shows two police officers setting a pair of K-9s on 15-year-old Walter Gadsden. One of the dogs lunges straight for the teenager’s belly as the other strains against his leash, panting. Over the past five years, controversial police K-9 attacks have made headlines across the U.S.Records reviewed by the AP in 2018 showed the Ohio State Highway Patrol used drug dogs in 28% of its stops involving Black motorists from 2013 through 2017, although the Black population accounts for only about 11.5% of people old enough to have a driver’s permit or license in the state. The Salt Lake City police department suspended its dog apprehension program in 2020 after a Black man was bitten and an audit found 27 dog bite cases during the previous two years.The FBI opened an investigation into the police department in Woodson Terrace, Missouri, in 2021 after cellphone video showed three officers allowing a dog to repeatedly bite a Black man. And in 2020, a Black man in Lafayette, Indiana, was placed in a medically induced coma after police dogs mauled him as he was arrested in a battery case. Circleville, located about 25 miles (40 km) south of Columbus, Ohio, resembles many rural towns across the country. The city's downtown is filled with restaurants, law offices and a bakery. Flags honoring fallen servicemen and women hang from lampposts lining Main Street. While the picture may be idyllic to some of the town’s 14,000 residents, the Rev. Derrick Holmes, longtime leader of the Second Baptist Church, said Black and white residents describe their lives very differently.“Everyone doesn’t have the same experience, even though they’re all in the same town,” Holmes said. “And I think those divisions exist around the realities of bigotry, the realities of racism.”At church services the day after the video of Rose’s arrest aired, Holmes said the congregation was appalled, but not entirely surprised.“People were horrified by it,” he said. “Angered by it. Frustrated by it. And also there was a feeling of, ‘Well, here we go again.’”This isn’t the first time Circleville police have grappled with uncomfortable questions about how they train and use police dogs. Nearly 20 years ago, a founder of the K-9 unit sued the department after he was fired for insubordination. Officer David Haynes had publicly opposed cutting training hours for dogs and their handlers to 172 hours annually from 500 hours, according to court documents. Haynes warned in a 2003 memo that “words like ‘deliberate indifference,’ ‘negligence’ and ‘failure to train’ will someday be brought up.”Today, Circleville’s K-9s train 16 hours per month, or 192 hours a year, according to the department. Police Chief Shawn Baer did not respond to numerous messages seeking comment.Employing dogs to dominate a population can be traced back at least to European settlers colonizing the Americas, when the animals were used against Indigenous people. They were introduced in Southern U.S. states to capture — and sometimes kill — enslaved Black people who escaped, said Madalyn Wasilczuk, a University of South Carolina professor and author of a law journal article titled, “ The Racialized Violence of Police Canine Force.”Wasilczuk found data on K-9 police attacks sparse, but said the animals are often used in nonviolent situations and their presence can lead to serious injury. “When you talk about an apprehension, police talk about bite and hold, and that sounds very antiseptic,” Wasilczuk said. “But when you look at a video of what happens, you see a dog doing what it does with a chew toy, which is it grabs on, it tries to hold on, its head whips back and forth and its teeth are sunk into that body part as deeply as they can.”In Rose’s case, law enforcement originally sought to pull him over because of his truck’s missing mudflap, according to a highway patrol report. Circleville Police were there to assist. What happened next can be pieced together from law enforcement video and the incident report.Rose initially didn't stop as police pursued him. When he did, he saw officers with their guns drawn and took off again. At some point, he called 911 and told a dispatcher he feared the officers were “trying to kill” him. After pulling over a second time, he delayed getting out of the truck and did not immediately get on the ground as instructed.He initially was charged with a felony for failing to comply with officers, but prosecutors dropped the case. Online court documents show Rose was charged Sept. 26 with a misdemeanor version of the offense and there is an active warrant for his arrest. Neither Rose nor his attorney responded to repeated messages seeking comment.It’s not clear why a K-9 unit was at the scene that day. Michael Gould, a former New York City police officer and founding member of the NYPD’s K-9 unit, said officers appeared to have control once they surrounded Rose with their guns drawn. And then there’s the image of Rose with his hands up.“He was compliant and not a threat to anyone,” Gould said. Rose required hospital care for the bites he suffered. Whether he sustained lasting injury is unclear. The dog’s police handler, Officer Ryan Speakman, was fired, but the Ohio Patrolman’s Benevolent Association filed a grievance on his behalf arguing the officer was fired without just cause. Circleville City Councilwoman Caryn Koch-Esterline said police have yet to account for what happened.“I’m just waiting for all the information to come out,” she said in a brief interview with the AP three months after Rose’s arrest.For those working to improve race relations in Ohio, the roadside attack was a reminder of all that is still left to do.“If it were a white man and a dog was unleashed on that individual, what would that community be saying? I bet they would be up in arms,” said Nana Jones, president of the Columbus Chapter of the NAACP.___Associated Press writers Rhonda Shafner and Aaron Morrison in New York, Mike Schneider in Orlando, Florida, and Samantha Hendrickson in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report.。 在9月中旬美联储年内首次降息后，陈琦一直纠结“是否有必要尽早结汇”。 陈琦是从事消费电子产品生产出口的浙江企业家。
B | “十一”假期期间，她向多位金融机构朋友咨询，得到的回复普遍是“鉴于美联储重启降息周期与美元贬值压力加大，尽早结汇不失为提前锁定较高结汇价格的好办法”。 陈琦迅速做出决定——先将30%的美元货款结汇。 张韵是一家股份制银行华东地区分行的对公业务主管，长期参与外贸企业资金兑换业务。她同样感受到外贸企业结汇意愿显著回升。“十一”假期后，她经手的不少外贸企业都开始加大结汇力度。
C | 此前，这些外贸企业采取“非必要不结汇”策略，因为他们认为美元理财的收益率高于境内人民币理财。“如今，这种状况已发生180度转变。外贸企业已经意识到美联储重启降息周期将压低美元理财收益率。当美元理财不再受追捧，大量外贸美元货款就有了结汇回流境内的需求。”张韵直言。
D | 理财收益利差牵动结汇意愿 与陈琦类似，福建地区大豆加工企业财务总监顾毅调整了大豆进口采购环节的汇率风险管理策略。 每年，这家大豆加工企业需从拉美地区进口12船大豆。
E | 为了对冲汇率波动风险，以往他们采取“一船押注人民币升值，一船押注美元升值”的平衡策略。但在美联储重启降息周期与美元贬值压力加大的共振下，顾毅计划将未来6船大豆进口采购都押注人民币对美元汇率升值。“我们还准备在10月内，对出口高蛋白饲料的50%美元货款完成结汇，避免未来人民币对美元汇率升值所造成的结汇金额缩水损失。”顾毅说。 面对全球贸易关税争端迭起与国际地缘政治风险升级，今年以来中国外贸的韧性依旧十足。 海关总署发布数据显示，今年前8个月，中国对外货物贸易的顺差金额达到7871亿美元，高于去年同期的6095亿美元。与此对应的是，今年前8个月，外贸企业的外币净收入额达到2549亿美元，较去年同期显著增长。
F | 但是，这些数据并未转化为外贸企业结汇率的显著增加。 记者注意到，今年前8个月，外贸企业平均结汇率为53.7%，较去年的全年均值小幅回升约0.5个百分点。
G | 张韵认为，之所以出现这种状况，一是美联储在今年前8个月迟迟不降息，导致美元货币基金与美债投资收益率保持在4.5%以上，较境内人民币存款利率与国债投资高出逾2.7个百分点，吸引外贸企业持续追捧美元理财，获取更高的无风险收益；二是面对上半年美元指数下跌10.8%，人民币对美元汇率升值幅度约1.9%，主要徘徊在7.15—7.30区间上下波动，无形间减弱了外贸企业的结汇意愿。
H | “外贸企业结汇意愿高企，往往出现在人民币对美元汇率快速大幅升值及相关预期强烈阶段。”张韵说。 陈琦告诉记者，在9月美联储年内首次降息前，她从未有过主动尽早结汇的念头。除了因支付上游原材料与员工薪酬费用而不得不结汇，她将大部分美元货款留在企业境外账户或香港子公司，用于投资美元货币基金与美国国债。“整个上半年，美元货币基金给我带来的年化收益约4.6%，比同期境内人民币存款利率高出逾2.8个百分点。
I | 这诱惑其实很大——毕竟，企业的消费电子产品出口业务净利润率仅有3%到4%。”她直言。 她还发现，不少外贸企业同行干脆参与新的利差套利操作。他们一面以3%到3.2%的年化贷款利率从境内银行获取经营性贷款，用于维持企业日常经营，一面将更多外贸美元货款留在企业境外账户，用于投资美元货币基金与美债理财产品以获取逾4.5%的年化回报，如此他们可以轻松获得至少1.3个百分点的无风险利差收入。 然而，在9月美联储重新扣动降息扳机后，外贸企业对美元理财的热衷度出现180度转变。“9月下旬起，身边不少外贸企业陆续加大结汇力度。
J | 究其原因，一是他们发现在美联储重启降息周期后，10年期美国国债收益率一度跌破4%，美元理财的收益优势开始减弱；二是在美联储降息后，人民币对美元汇率上涨突破7.15—7.30的盘整区间，大家开始预期人民币汇率或将补涨，纷纷提前行动以锁定较高的结汇价格。”陈琦告诉记者。 这也让她萌生了尽早结汇的念头。通过“十一”期间的咨询，节后她迅速加入结汇阵营。 陈琦表示，吸引她做出尽早结汇决定的一大因素，是A股赚钱效应日益增强。多位金融机构朋友告诉她，当前A股红利策略热门股的股息率稳定在4%到5%，加之资金持续涌入，相关红利策略热门股股价有望继续上涨，令其综合回报率不亚于美元货币基金与美国国债。于是，她打算先将30%的美元货款结汇，投向挂钩红利策略的含权理财产品或基金。 “在投资境内人民币理财产品前，我专门看了新闻报道，发现美联储降息与美元贬值压力已驱动境外资金纷纷投资港股A股。或许，我们也需要尽快调整市场认知——以往的美债高息与美元坚挺时代已经落幕，现在轮到中国资产扬眉吐气。 汇率波动避险 最近两周，张韵感受到外贸企业结汇意愿与结汇力度显著提升。
K | 她透露，“十一”假期后，越来越多的外贸企业不再对结汇金额“精打细算”，而是一次性结汇逾1/4的美元货款。
L | 尤其在近日人民币对美元汇率中间价持续上涨并突破7.1整数关口后，外贸企业的结汇力度水涨船高。 10月15日，人民币对美元汇率中间价报在7.0995，自去年11月以来首次突破7.1整数关口。 陈琦认为，这也印证自己尽早结汇的决定相当“明智”。 近期，受日本、法国政局不确定性风险增加影响，日元、欧元的下跌反而助攻美元指数一度反弹至99上方，令人民币对美元汇率回落至7.14附近，这反而令外贸企业抓住机会加大结汇额度。
M | 有外贸企业认为，10月底美联储降息将令美元重回跌势，到时人民币汇率重启涨势，自己的结汇金额将相应缩水。 但是，也有外贸企业对尽早结汇“心有余而力不足”，一是购买的美元理财产品在年底到期结算，无法在当下开展结汇操作，二是担心近日贸易关税争端再起将压低人民币汇率，转而采取观望策略。 “针对这种状况，我们一面向外贸企业提供外汇期权等远期结汇工具，帮助他们提前锁定年底结汇价格，执行价格主要在7.10—7.12之间，符合他们期望的结汇价格目标；一面提醒他们不要盲目赌人民币汇率，导致企业的汇率风险加大。”长期从事外贸企业外汇套保方案设计的城商行金融市场部主管张洪磊对记者表示。 此外，针对外贸企业的业务特点与资金周转需求，张洪磊所在的城商行着手设计定制化的远期结汇方案，帮助他们通过多元化远期结汇工具锁定不同业务节点资金回笼的结汇价格。 宁波地区一家家居出口中小企业的负责人向记者坦言，远期外汇工具固然能帮助他们获取较好的结汇价格，但在实际操作过程中，小微外贸企业仍遇到两大操作痛点：一是中美利差持续倒挂，导致远期结汇价格大幅贴水，令企业的锁汇操作成本相对较高；二是外贸企业办理远期结汇业务需缴纳保证金，导致他们财务负担与资金占用压力相应增加。 记者多方了解到，在当地相关部门支持下，宁波地区部分银行着手提供外汇期权费补助，帮助外贸企业降低办理远期结汇业务的资金开支。 张洪磊向记者表示，随着远期结汇工具的持续普及，外贸企业不再赌人民币汇率，而是通过综合性外汇套保方案锁定合适的结汇价格，以及稳健的汇兑收益。 中国央行发布数据显示，9月，企业外汇套保比率约为30%，较2020年的17%显著提升。 中国央行货币政策司负责人表示，未来，央行与国家外汇管理局将持续大力引导企业和金融机构树立汇率风险中性理念，指导金融机构积极为中小微企业提供汇率避险服务。
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